As the country gears up for presidential and parliamentary elections, the temperatures in Igara East, Bushenyi district in western Uganda have exponentially shot up; putting incumbent MP Micheal Mawanda in catch 22.

All signs and symptoms indicate that it will be a two horse race—between Mawanda and Dan Mugura Karukiiko, a known NRM cadre.

Mugura is the son of Mzee Eldard Karukiiko, the NRM Chairperson for Kyeizooba Sub-county who has since earned a moniker “Abiriga” of Bushenyi due to his permanent yellow cladding as a sign of his love and loyalty to the ruling NRM party.

Mugura first contested against Mawanda in the 2021 parliamentary elections.

Mawanda garnered over 13,000 votes against Mugura’s 12,000 in an election that was seen by many as a highly competitive one.

Mugura’s camp says the ground has now been cleared and they are just waiting for the d-day to politically eclipse Mawanda.

Watchers on ground told this publication that Mawanda must work hard and even invoke divine intervention for him to reclaim his seat for a fourth time.

One of the issues is his reported absence from the constituency to listen to the electorates’ wishes, cries and demands.

There is also a Mawanda fatigue in Igara east having served for three terms.

Electorates say he has eaten enough and it’s now time for others.

Having been Igara East MP since 2011, Mawanda’s longivity as a serving MP from Greater Bushenyi is only rivaled by Mitooma’s Gen.Kahinda Otafiire.

The other dilemma is that he has reportedly promised and pledged a lot in those three terms but many remain unfulfilled.

Observers further told us that Mawanda’s failure to scoop a cabinet slot may cost him his seat.

Whereas in a recent cabinet reshuffle, some of his colleagues (Balaam, Aber) in the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) scooped cabinet slots, Mawanda was not considered.

Watchers say this was a tell-tale sign that Mawanda is politically cracking.

Electorates now feel there is a need to vote for another MP with cabinet-level deployment credentials.

On the other hand, Mugura’s 2021 slim margin between him and the incumbent Mawanda, is, to many, attributed to the fact that he stood as an independent and never participated in the NRM primaries.

But this time he will.

“Yes, I will be contesting in the primaries under the NRM ticket. I am a strong NRM mobilizer! Actually our family is known to be a yellow family under the headship of my father, Mzee Karukiiko. There is no way I cannot fight for the NRM flag. That’s my home,” Mugura said in an interview with this publication.

Reports indicate that former MP Andrew Martial (known for having openly worked against the Togikwatako campaign that removed the Presidential term limits, but later lost the seat to Mawanda in a by-election) is plotting a comeback.

There is also Yiyard Rushatuka and Fabian Gakyaaro.

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