(CNS): Recent revelations from the 2023 Fall Labour Force Survey about the size of the workforce and the increase in local unemployment to over 5% from just over 3% last year while work permit numbers remain high raise questions about the health and sustainability of Cayman’s economy. Last year, the economy grew by about 4% and the inflation rate also averaged around 4%. But the population has grown by nearly 5% and the number of work permit holders by 11%, suggesting that productivity is falling.

Opposition Leader Roy McTaggart believes the labour market is growing much faster than the overall economy, so the work is being done by more people, many of them imported workers. This means the standard of living is falling because it is taking more people to generate less wealth, which is being spread among a greater number of people.

“The numbers are showing that something is going on,” McTaggart said when he appeared on Radio Cayman’s For the Record last week. “I don’t know what it is, but something is happening because these things are diverging and we are getting a far larger increase in the working population than the economic growth should warrant.”

According to the most recent Labour Force Survey published last week, the estimated population in Cayman at the end of last year was as much as 85,000; the workforce stands at over 60,500 people, and as of March, there were almost 37,000 expatriate workers in Cayman on permits.

Deputy Opposition Leader Joey Hew said he was concerned about the lack of information the government has about Caymanians in the workforce and the enforcement of work permit laws. He said the failure of the minimum wage to keep pace with inflation is fuelling the number of permits, and better gatekeeping is required.

He added that “we don’t want to shut the gates, but we have to do a better job of ensuring that those who are coming in to work in our country” are receiving the salary and doing the work they were told they would be.

The rising local unemployment rate is happening even as more jobs are being created. With over 1,400 Caymanians now available and looking for work but unemployed, the government faces the problem of a record number of permit holders, many of whom are employed in low-salary positions.

Labour Minister Dwayne Seymour has not commented on the labour report, which was released more than five days ago, nor has he commented on his plans in relation to the minimum wage report, which was handed over to Cabinet in October last year. That report by the Minimum Wage Advisory Committee, which was not made public until March, recommended a 46% increase in the mandated minimum wage from $6 per hour to CI$8.75.

Seymour has not said when or if he will be implementing the increase. Openly conflicted on the issue as an employer of minimum wage employees at his own airport baggage handling company, the labour minister has previously said he does not believe that increasing the minimum wage would help Caymanians because only a handful of local people are working at that level. He said that raising the basic national wage would be “financially crippling” for Caymanians, especially those who employ domestic help.

While relationships in Cabinet are said to be less contentious since Wayne Panton was ousted as premier last October, it is understood that disagreements on policy issues remain. The UPM appears unable to reach any kind of consensus on a range of pressing issues, such as the minimum wage, housing and transport policies.